How to shrink the “Uncertainty Circle” is the topic of a paper I read today. It has been written by Rachel Mason-Jones and Denis R. Towill and can be downloaded here free of charge.
In his 2009 paper Brian Tomlin analyzes strategies to mitigate disruption risks in a three echelon supply chain.
Setting
Focus in his research is a single company, with its suppliers and customers. The objective is to maximize expected utility, while demand and supply are uncertain. There are two products available which can be used as substitutes. The time horizon for the decision maker is one season where the products can be sold.
Large Cooperations often employ staff for supply chain planning and sometimes additional staff for supply chain risk management.
Small / medium enterprises usually have more limited resources and therefore have to focus more. For this reason M.N. Faisal developed a prioritization of supply chain risks.
